Welcome to Kantar Retail's collection of predictions for 2015
and beyond - a series of forward-looking ideas that we hope act as
a sort of "users guide" to the era in retail history we have
identified as "The Great Disruption." That disruption starts with
the catalysts causing it, many of which are rooted in the macro
landscape. This is a world which is predictably volatile -
catalysts for change are going to cause frequent and significant
disruption… and if this is known, building an organization built to
cope with disruption might be the best possible strategy.
Our predictions around these catalysts are global in scope and
far-reaching in nature - we view the drop in oil prices as
temporary and not altogether positive (even in the US). Europe's
economic platform causes disruption both in Europe and abroad as it
forces a change in how retailers manage and organize themselves and
also drives the major European retailers to globally retrench. The
macro-picture predictions in China focus on a core theme that will
repeat throughout the predictions - the big ideas that were the
strategic guide for early 2010s strategy are still big; they are
just not as big as they used to be, and (more importantly)
increasingly complicated and polarized. China is still growing, but
that growth will require just as much of a granular approach and
thinking as any other major market will.
Within this Great Disruption, Kantar Retail sees a major
strategic repositioning coming, captured within our strategic
framework called REconfigure Retail. The
predictions in our report are organized around the four major areas
we think are most important to suppliers and retailers trying to
win in this new world:
REimagine Value. Our predictions here
- Views on price-based value evolving into a far more dynamic and
- The increasing importance of non-priced based value
(particularly to higher income shoppers).
- Value-based products and supply chains will be a big strategic
choice for many of the world's largest retailers - be it organic
grocery or sustainably farmed cotton for apparel.
REinvent Format. The idea of "fewer bigger"
permeates our format predictions:
- Discount remains one of the most significant store-based growth
platforms, but discount is becoming increasingly globalized and
more complex in mature markets such as Europe. A number of our
predictions chart the future growth and development of discount as
- Small formats are predicted to continue driving growth across
- Large stores are forced to radically reconfigure their value
proposition. In particular, we predict the continued integration of
big-box retail and immersive technology, big-box retail and
healthcare, and big-box retail and wholesale/foodservice.
REengage Shoppers. Here our predictions focus
on the "big" themes, and we find out that many of these continue to
polarize as well:
- Many of our predictions focus on the continued polarization of
the Millennial audience and in particular their adoption of
- We also look at the techniques companies will use to reach
these new shoppers and the core complicator here, which is
personalized communication (which ties back to personalized value
as well). This will cause the future to be about addressable
targeting and attribution-centered results measurement.
- Shopper marketing as a discipline will continue to blur
mightily between digital/mobile marketing, search marketing, and
classic brand marketing - and that the end result of this may be
the end of some of the frameworks we have historically used to
understand shopper behavior. In particular, we predict we are
moving to a "post-category," "post decision tree" world for
understanding shopper behavior.
- We also think that retailers will more aggressively diversify
to look at new customer types (like small businesses) and new
shopping trips (like quick-service restaurants).
- All of this suggests our core prediction for the future of
shopper marketing - the world of "Above the Line" and "Below the
Line" is going away. There simply is no more line.
REtool Commerce. The line disappearing has
enormous predicted impact on the commercial models being used by
retailers to evaluate their success.
- In particular, store productivity will become the fundamental
conversation-starter between successful suppliers and successful
- Genuinely understanding shopper optimization both in-store and
online will be critical, as well.
These predictions and the REconfigure REtail framework are
useful guides to navigating the disruptive retailing landscape.
This was a team effort - we had over 40 Kantar Retail team members
from around the world who offered their perspective on the Great
Disruption - making this one of the most collaborative, global, and
interesting pieces we've ever done.
Enjoy the read and have a great year.
Source: Kantar Retail